Wheat

Wheat updates

February rally short-lived amid bearish market.

Wheat producers face another challenging year in 2025. Prices are projected to remain below breakeven levels, fluctuating between $5.45-$6.00 per bushel in 2025. Growers also face higher costs including rising repair and maintenance costs, along with inland basis and transportation expenses exceeding a $1.00 per bushel. This follows on the heels of a difficult 2024, where most growers experienced financial losses and decreased working capital.

Wheat markets are generally bearish with few prospects for improvement. Producers had hoped for a sustained price rally given the deteriorating outlook for Russia’s wheat crop. (As of Feb. 28, 37% of Russia’s crop was in poor condition and production estimates have been repeatedly reduced). Prices did rally by $0.60 per bushel in early February but ended the month lower than they started given favorable weather in key global growing regions and a 2% increase in USDA's 2025-26 wheat planting projection.

In the West, rapid spring temperature changes in Idaho, Montana and Washington caused flooding and excess water in fields. While the winter wheat crop seems undamaged, there was some soil erosion. Anecdotal reports indicate some landlords are struggling to find producers willing to rent wheat ground.

A robust risk management strategy will help growers mitigate losses expected for 2025.

Profitability

March 12, 2025

Wheat: Slightly unprofitable - Neutral 12-month outlook

Global export competition and a strengthening U.S. dollar will create headwinds for wheat growers. While bearish price signals add to these headwinds, winter wheat conditions are improving as drought eases.

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